大城市的城市化发展战略和途径研究--以南京市为例

城市化从本质上是一种经济社会结构变动过程，南京市作为长江三角洲的副中心城市和江苏省省会，需要认真研究在经济全球化背景下，如何加快推进城市化进程，发挥中心城市功能，促进城市现代化和可持续发展。城市化水平的提高、大城市中心功能的加强、较为明显的城乡二元结构是南京市城市化过程中的基本特征。南京城市化的发展遇到了前所未有的机遇，江苏省已经提出了大力规划建设以南京市为中心的都市圈，并在2001、2002连续2年扩张南京市区的范围，大大加强了南京市的综合实力。南京的城市化发展主要途径在于提升城市功能，奠定城市化的经济基础；以城市空间优化为支点，以基础设施建设为引导，提高城市现代化水平；增强中心城市辐射功能．带动城乡一体的发展。推进南京城市化的进程还必须要制定一些政策和措施傲保证，如加快户籍制度和土地制度的改革、加大投资融资的力度、制定各类切实可行的规划等等。     

Study on Assessing Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Regions

The main purpose of this study is to assess economic vulnerability of small island development regions as part of their sustainability constraints. By combining economic and environmental time series data, we assessed a composite index of economic vulnerability which is constructed from three exogenous variables, namely economic exposure, economic remoteness, and economic impact of environmental and natural disasters. We used the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan as the case studies for this paper.The results indicated that using a gross island products based valuation index, Kikaijima is the most vulnerable island in the Amami Islands with a composite economic vulnerability index (CEVI) value of 0.678, while by using a per capita based index, Okinoerabujima is considered the most vulnerable island with a CEVI value of 0.680. From the results we also revealed that smaller islands have relative higher vulnerability than the bigger one, which also confirms some previous country-level vulnerability studies.However, it is matter of fact that some islands that have relatively high vulnerability also have good economic performance as shown by their per capita income. In this regard, it can be argued that the success of these small islands could have been achieved in spite of and not because of their inherent vulnerability conditions as an indicator of sustainability constraint. Regarding these findings, we also examined a comparison between vulnerability results and the preliminary concept of an island's resilience in order to capture another perspective on sustainability assessment in a small island region.     

What is soil organic matter worth?

The conservation and restoration of soil organic matter are often advocated because of the generally beneficial effects on soil attributes for plant growth and crop production. More recently, organic matter has become important as a terrestrial sink and store for C and N. We have attempted to derive a monetary value of soil organic matter for crop production and storage functions in three contrasting New Zealand soil orders (Gley, Melanic, and Granular Soils). Soil chemical and physical characteristics of real-life examples of three pairs of matched soils with low organic matter contents (after long-term continuous cropping for vegetables or maize) or high organic matter content (continuous pasture) were used as input data for a pasture (grass-clover) production model. The differences in pasture dry matter yields (non-irrigated) were calculated for three climate scenarios (wet, dry, and average years) and the yields converted to an equivalent weight and financial value of milk solids. We also estimated the hypothetical value of the C and N sequestered during the recovery phase of the low organic matter content soils assuming trading with C and N credits. For all three soil orders, and for the three climate scenarios, pasture dry matter yields were decreased in the soils with lower organic matter contents. The extra organic matter in the high C soils was estimated to be worth NZ$27 to NZ$150 ha(-1) yr(-1) in terms of increased milk solids production. The decreased yields from the previously cropped soils were predicted to persist for 36 to 125 yr, but with declining effect as organic matter gradually recovered, giving an accumulated loss in pastoral production worth around NZ$518 to NZ$1239 ha(-1). This was 42 to 73 times lower than the hypothetical value of the organic matter as a sequestering agent for C and N, which varied between NZ$22,963 to NZ$90,849 depending on the soil, region, discount rates, and values used for carbon and nitrogen credits.     

Upflow reactors for riparian zone denitrification

We used permeable reactive subsurface barriers consisting of a C source (wood particles), with very high hydraulic conductivities ( approximately 0.1-1 cm s(-1)), to provide high rates of riparian zone NO3-N removal at two field sites in an agricultural area of southwestern Ontario. At one site, a 0.73-m3 reactor containing fine wood particles was monitored for a 20-mo period and achieved a 33% reduction in mean influent NO3-N concentration of 11.5 mg L(-1) and a mean removal rate of 4.5 mg L(-1) d(-1) (0.7 g m(-2) d(-1)). At the second site, four smaller reactors (0.21 m3 each), two containing fine wood particles and two containing coarse wood particles, were monitored for a 4-mo period and were successful in attenuating mean influent NO3-N concentrations of 23.7 to 35.1 mg L(-1) by 41 to 63%. Mean reaction rates for the two coarse-particle reactors (3.2 and 7.8 mg L(-1) d(-1), or 1.5 and 3.4 g m(-2) d(-1)) were not significantly different (p > 0.2) than the rates observed in the two fine-particle reactors (5.0 and 9.9 mg L(-1) d(-1), or 1.8-3.5 g m(-2) d(-1)). A two-dimensional ground water flow model is used to illustrate how permeable reactive barriers such as these can be used to redirect ground water flow within riparian zones, potentially augmenting NO3- removal in this environment.     

Exposure to radiation from global system for mobile communications at 1,800 MHz significantly changes gene expression in rat hippocampus and cortex

We have earlier shown that radio frequency electromagnetic fields can cause significant leakage of albumin through the blood–brain barrier of exposed rats as compared to non-exposed rats, and also significant neuronal damage in rat brains several weeks after a 2 h exposure to a mobile phone, at 915 MHz with a global system for mobile communications (GSM) frequency modulation, at whole-body specific absorption rate values (SAR) of 200, 20, 2, and 0.2 mW/kg. We have now studied whether 6 h of exposure to the radiation from a GSM mobile test phone at 1,800 MHz (at a whole-body SAR-value of 13 mW/kg, corresponding to a brain SAR-value of 30 mW/kg) has an effect upon the gene expression pattern in rat brain cortex and hippocampus—areas where we have observed albumin leakage from capillaries into neurons and neuronal damage. Microarray analysis of 31,099 rat genes, including splicing variants, was performed in cortex and hippocampus of 8 Fischer 344 rats, 4 animals exposed to global system for mobile communications electromagnetic fields for 6 h in an anechoic chamber, one rat at a time, and 4 controls kept as long in the same anechoic chamber without exposure, also in this case one rat at a time. Gene ontology analysis (using the gene ontology categories biological processes, molecular functions, and cell components) of the differentially expressed genes of the exposed animals versus the control group revealed the following highly significant altered gene categories in both cortex and hippocampus: extracellular region, signal transducer activity, intrinsic to membrane, and integral to membrane. The fact that most of these categories are connected with membrane functions may have a relation to our earlier observation of albumin transport through brain capillaries.     

Toxic equivalent concentrations (TEQs) for baseline toxicity and specific modes of action as a tool to improve interpretation of ecotoxicity testing of environmental samples

The toxic equivalency concept is a widely applied method to express the toxicity of complex mixtures of compounds that act via receptor-mediated mechanisms such as induction of the arylhydrocarbon or estrogen receptors. Here we propose to extend this concept to baseline toxicity, using the bioluminescence inhibition test with Vibrio fischeri, and an integrative ecotoxicity endpoint, algal growth rate inhibition. Both bioassays were validated by comparison with literature data and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for baseline toxicity were developed for all endpoints. The novel combined algae test, with Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, allows for the simultaneous evaluation of specific inhibition of photosynthesis and growth rate. The contributions of specific inhibition of photosynthesis and non-specific toxicity could be differentiated by comparing the time and endpoint pattern. Photosynthesis efficiency, measured with the saturation pulse method after 2 h of incubation, served as indicator of specific inhibition of photosynthesis by photosystem II inhibitors. Diuron equivalents were defined as toxicity equivalents for this effect. The endpoint of growth rate over 24 h served to derive baseline toxicity equivalent concentrations (baseline-TEQ). By performing binary mixture experiments with reference compounds and complex environmental samples from a sewage treatment plant and a river, the TEQ concept was validated. The proposed method allows for easier interpretation and communication of effect-based water quality monitoring data and provides a basis for comparative analysis with chemical analytical monitoring.     

The short-term effects of prescribed burning on biomass removal and the release of nitrogen and phosphorus in a treatment wetland

Nutrient removal by constructed wetlands can decline over time due to the accumulation of organic matter. A prescribed burn is one of many management strategies used to remove detritus in macrophyte-dominated systems. We quantified the short-term effects on effluent water quality and the amount of aboveground detritus removed from a prescribed burn event. Surface water outflow concentrations were approximately three times higher for P and 1.5 times higher for total Kjeldhal nitrogen (TKN) following the burn event when compared to the control. The length of time over which the fire effect was significant (P < 0.05), 3 d for TKN and up to 23 d for P fractions. Over time, the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in the effluent decreased, but was compensated with increases in dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) and particulate phosphorus (PP), such that net total P remained the same. Total aboveground biomass decreased by 68.5% as a result of the burn, however, much of the live vegetation was converted to standing dead material. These results demonstrate that a prescribed burn can significantly decrease the amount of senescent organic matter in a constructed wetland. However, short-term nutrient releases following the burn could increase effluent nutrient concentrations. Therefore, management strategies should include hydraulically isolating the burned area immediately following the burn event to prevent nutrient export.     

Mapping Turbidity in the Charles River, Boston Using a High-resolution Satellite

The usability of high-resolution satellite imagery for estimating spatial water quality patterns in urban water bodies is evaluated using turbidity in the lower Charles River, Boston as a case study. Water turbidity was surveyed using a boat-mounted optical sensor (YSI) at 5 m spatial resolution, resulting in about 4,000 data points. The ground data were collected coincidently with a satellite imagery acquisition (IKONOS), which consists of multispectral (R, G, B) reflectance at 1 m resolution. The original correlation between the raw ground and satellite data was poor (R2 = 0.05). Ground data were processed by removing points affected by contamination (e.g., sensor encounters a particle floc), which were identified visually. Also, the ground data were corrected for the memory effect introduced by the sensor's protective casing using an analytical model. Satellite data were processed to remove pixels affected by permanent non-water features (e.g., shoreline). In addition, water pixels within a certain buffer distance from permanent non-water features were removed due to contamination by the adjacency effect. To determine the appropriate buffer distance, a procedure that explicitly considers the distance of pixels to the permanent non-water features was applied. Two automatic methods for removing the effect of temporary non-water features (e.g., boats) were investigated, including (1) creating a water-only mask based on an unsupervised classification and (2) removing (filling) all local maxima in reflectance. After the various processing steps, the correlation between the ground and satellite data was significantly better (R2 = 0.70). The correlation was applied to the satellite image to develop a map of turbidity in the lower Charles River, which reveals large-scale patterns in water clarity. However, the adjacency effect prevented the application of this method to near-shore areas, where high-resolution patterns were expected (e.g., outfall plumes).     

事故预测方法研究述评

将事故预测方法归纳为情景分析法、回归预测法、时间预测法、马尔可夫链状预测法、灰色预测法和非线性预测法6大类,并进行分析和比较.结果表明:1)目前的预测方法大多针对各自行业部门,因此采用自身相适应的预测方法和提高预测精度是事故预测的关键;2)剔除随机性和偶然性,提取异常点和异质性是工业事故进行预测建模的依据;3)系统安全是一个动态随机的非线性过程,应将定性与定量、线性与非线性、静态与动态预测方法相结合,进行组合预测才有可能实现最优预测;4)基于状态预测的事故优生理念,是未来事故预测理论的发展趋势.     

Perceptions toward stewardship among residents living near U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue